Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-04T00:20:39

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain mostly above the high (1000 pfu) level. After previously showing a trend of increasing diurnal peaks, the flux is starting to show a declining trend, with electrons slowly leaking away from the radiation belts. Electron flux values are therefore likely to remain above the high threshold over the next four days, but with declining diurnal peaks.

Electron fluence values are currently showing a declining trend, although it appears that REFM is reducing the fluence faster than is expected, with a steadier decline represented in the probabilities. There is however a slight chance that the electron fluence could increase above the Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu) threshold on day 1, but is expected to stay above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through much of the forecast period.