Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-03T00:00:38

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold, and may even briefly rise to very high, above 10000 pfu at the diurnal maximum. Its peak value should reduce over the following days as the solar wind slowly returns to slow-ambient levels, giving a decreasing trend in the corresponding 24-hour fluence. Despite this, it is likely to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the next four days, with a very slight chance of approaching the Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu) threshold by Day 2 (3rd).

This forecast is supported by the REFM forecast model, although this model is probably overdoing it with its strong indication of a rise above the Very Active threshold - this scenario is considered possible as opposed to probable. The 27-day recurrence is considered to be giving better guidance with a continuation above the Active threshold likely to continue through the rest of the forecast period.