MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-02T00:04:52
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been rising through the day, reaching high levels (1e3 pfu) from 01/1015 UTC, wit ha peak of 13.6e3 pfu at 01/1915 UTC. With elevated solar wind speeds but geomagnetic activity expected to remain mostly Quiet to Unsettled, there is a good chance for the electron flux to remain mostly high over the following days, perhaps occasionally reaching very high during the diurnal oscillation from day 1 to day 3.
Corresponding 24-hour fluence is likely to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the next four days, with a very slight chance of approaching the Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu) threshold by day 2 (3rd).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-09-02T00:04:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 90% | 10% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 20% |
| Day 3 | 90% | 10% |
| Day 4 | 90% | 5% |