Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-09T00:02:05

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), as observed by GOES-16, has oscillated between moderate and high (1000 pfu) levels over the past 12 hours with a diurnal peak only slightly below the level it reached yesterday. Given that the solar wind speeds are now back down to ambient levels after the effects of CH75/+ which gave the increase in electron levels, it is likely that electron flux levels will gradually decline over the next few days.

In line with this expected decrease, electron fluence levels are also likely to decline in the coming days. The exact day when the fluence will move back below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold is a little difficult to pin down, but currently seems most likely to occur on Days 3 or 4 (11 or 12 Sep).

The declining trend, as shown by the REFM and the recurrence-persistence models, is accepted though not reducing as quickly as these models suggest.