MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-09T00:23:38
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-1 approached high values at the diurnal maximum on the 8th, but peaked just below at 840 pfu. With no sources of enhancement in the forecast, a gradual downward trend in peak values is now expected, with values varying between background levels and moderate.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain at normal background levels throughout with a gradual declining trend. This is supported by REFM.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-10-09T00:23:38 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |