Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-08T00:12:26

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been oscillating between between background and moderate levels over the past 48 hours, with very little response from the electron population despite the arrival of the high speed stream from coronal hole 92, perhaps due to the lack of geomagnetic response. As such, the chances of seeing the electron flux reach high levels from the current feature are now considered slight as the high speed stream starts to wane. Corresponding 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout.

REFM is considered to be over-estimating the risks although the trend is accepted, with a flat or slightly declining trend.