Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-08T00:00:31

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is likely to stay below the Alert threshold (1000 pfu) initially, with the corresponding fluence level remaining well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. However, the High Speed Stream from negative coronal hole 01 / 02 may increase the electron count above the 1000 pfu Alert threshold during the diurnal maximum. The corresponding electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout, though with an increasing trend. 

This is supported by the REFM 3-day forecast and the 27-day recurrence, which strongly suggest levels will remain below the Active threshold  The recurrence-persistence model has probabilities of exceeding Active at between 7 to 11 percent over the period. The only caveat to this is that the coronal holes 01 and 02 were not present on the last rotation, which reduces confidence a little.