Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-01T00:04:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) may rise above the Alert threshold at the diurnal maxima, but with the corresponding fluence level remaining below the Active threshold. With the current elevated solar wind speed, there is a small chance the fluence could rise near to or above the threshold on Days 2 to 4, however this is low confidence. Also, from the previous rotation (REFM 27-day recurrence) levels remained close to, but below the Active threshold, throughout. The recurrence-persistence model has probabilities of between 11 and 16 percent for Days 1 to 4, which is broadly reasonable. The forecast may require adjusting if the 29th November CME glances Earth.