MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-30T00:04:00
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) may rise above the Alert threshold at the diurnal maxima through the period, but with the corresponding fluence level likely remaining below the Active threshold. This is supported by the 3-day REFM forecast model. Also, from the previous rotation (REFM 27-day recurrence) levels remained close to, but below the Active threshold, throughout. The recurrence-persistence model has probabilities of between 11 and 15 percent for Days 2 to 4, which is broadly reasonable.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-11-30T00:04:00 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |