MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-29T00:04:42
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, has exhibited a diurnal variation between moderate and high values in the last 24 hours. Little change is anticipated during the forecast period, although peak values are likely to erratically decline. The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) and expected to stay below this value through the period. This is supported by REFM which is currently giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-11-29T00:04:42 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |