Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-22T00:30:04

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES16 at GEO is currently at background levels, but is expected to rise due to the arrival of the fast wind from coronal hole 96. On the previous rotation the connection to this wind led to observed electron flux increasing to become persistently high for a number of days. A similar rise is possible on this occasion, although confidence is reduced due to the later arrival of the fast wind and also the slightly lower expected peak wind speed. 

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is therefore expected to climb, with a chance of reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by day 1 (22nd), and expected to reach it by the end of day 2 (23rd). Active fluence is then expected to persist thereafter. REFM is providing an indication of an increasing trend, however due to the later arrival of the fast wind compared with 27-day persistence is currently underestimating expected values.