Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-23T00:15:41

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 (before the data outage) were at background or moderate values. Although the arrival of the high speed stream from CH88 is likely to boost the electron flux today (23 Oct), likely reaching High (1e3pfu) levels, the increase is not expected to be regular and may even fall to background levels at times following any significant geomagnetic enhancements. The same is likely to happen on Day 3 (25 Oct), due to the arrival of the high speed stream from CH90 and CH91. This could lead to a further increase of electron counts, perhaps in excess of Very High (1e4pfu) levels during day 4 (26th). 

The associated electron fluence is therefore expected to rise from late today, possibly reaching Active on by late tomorrow (24 Oct) but more likely on Day 3 (25 Oct).  On the previous rotation there was a rapid increase in the associated electron fluence, becoming Active through the equivalent period. The increasing trend is supported by REFM and the recurrence-persistence model.