Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-30T00:21:24

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to persist above the Alert threshold (1000pfu). The corresponding fluence levels are expected to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with a decreasing possibility of exceeding the Very Active threshold (1e9 integrated pfu). Met Office REFM output continues to over predict fluence levels. The 27-day recurrence is giving reasonable guidance, although it was just above Very Active on the previous rotation. Confidence reduces through the four-day period, depending on the strength of the CME arrival on Day 1 or 2 (30 or 31 October), which could potentially disrupt and compress the magnetopause sufficiently to lower fluence levels in geostationary orbit.