Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-29T00:16:57

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to persist above the Alert threshold (1000pfu). The corresponding fluence levels are expected to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with a possibility of exceeding the Very Active threshold (1e9 integrated pfu) through the period. Met Office REFM output continues to over predict fluence levels. The 27-day recurrence is giving reasonable guidance, although it was just above Very Active on the previous rotation. Confidence reduces through the four day period, depending on the strength of the CME arrival on Day 2 or 3 (30 or 31 October), which could potentially disrupt and compress the magnetopause sufficiently to lower fluence levels in geostationary orbit.