Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-28T00:29:23

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is above the high threshold (1000pfu) due to the recent and ongoing influence of the high speed stream from coronal hole 90. On the previous rotation a similar pattern was observed, with the flux remaining high for 6 days after exceeding the threshold. As a similar initial pattern has been observed on this rotation, the flux is expected to remain high throughout the period, with a low risk of exceeding the very high (5e4pfu) threshold.

Corresponding electron fluence values are above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold with a steadily rising trend. Analysing the current flux values and the behaviour on the comparable previous rotation, there is a high likelihood that the Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu) threshold will be reached on day 1, with a chance of this on the remaining three days.

The electron flux and fluence values are subject to a redistribution due to any significant geomagnetic activity. This is most likely on day 1 due to the high speed stream from coronal hole 90, or due to any CME arrivals on days 3 and 4.