Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-21T00:01:35

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at mostly background or moderate values. These values are likely to persist through Day 1 (21 Oct). Thereafter we are expecting an increase in solar wind speeds due to coronal hole 88 and later coronal hole 90, however timings for the increase are uncertain. This is likely to lead to an increase in electron flux from Day 2 (22 Oct), with periods of High flux expected.

On the previous rotation there was a rapid increase in the associated electron fluence, becoming Active through the equivalent period. There is uncertainty in the timing and strength of the increase on this rotation however. The associated electron fluence is therefore expected to rise from Day 2 onwards, probably reaching Active during the period. The increasing trend is supported by both REFM and the recurrence-persistence model.