Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-20T00:13:50

The forecast for high energy electron flux and fluence is prone to particularly low confidence in this period, as a result of changes to the train of positive polarity northern polar-connected coronal holes 89, 88 and 90. The flux will start from a mainly Normal Background level, but is expected to undergo some step-changes upwards in the coming working week, with the solar winds expected to undergo incremental increases towards 500km/s.

The over-arching trend is for rapidly diminishing confidence with time, but also a rising chance of breaching Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence, peaking at the end of the four days by which time Earth ought to be experiencing more assured 'hits' from CH88 and perhaps 90 (for them being further south on the disc than 89). The overall level attained ought to be less than on last rotation, with STEREO A PLASTIC measurements suggesting 500km/s is a realistic eventual destination for the solar wind speed, while Earth is also a month further from the autumnal equinox.