Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-27T00:22:16

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently high, and above the Alert level (greater than 1000 pfu), due to Earth encountering the fast wind of the northern hemisphere coronal holes, including CH92. Flux levels are currently following a similar path to the previous rotation, and a similar progression in conditions can be expected. Flux levels are therefore likely to peak at over 10000pfu for a number days.

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently Active (1e8 integrated pfu), and expected to persist above this level. In order to observe Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu) conditions, average flux values of around 11500pfu are required over 24 hours. On the previous rotation this was observed for a number of days, and hence is considered likely on this occasion with the greatest risk of reaching this level on day 2 (28th). Confidence is low however, due to the reduced geomagnetic enhancements observed from CH92 on this rotation