Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-26T00:25:49

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently High (greater than 1000 pfu), due to recent enhancements from the fast wind from coronal hole 88. Periods of low to background flux are possible, mainly day 1, with the arrival of the fast wind of CH91/92. This is likely to bring enhanced geomagnetic activity, which can influence the observed electron flux levels at GEO. As conditions stabilise, flux values are expected to become persistently high, perhaps exceeding 10000 pfu at times.   

The associated fluence is currently Active, and whilst there is the potential for a brief reduction in values as observed flux becomes suppressed for a time day 1, the general trend in fluence values is expected to be an increasing one, as supported by REFM. This will bring a risk of Very Active fluence, mainly by the end of day 3. Otherwise persistently Active fluence is expected. On the previous rotation, a period of Very Active fluence was observed for 6 days from this coronal hole feature, however confidence is lower on this occasion for a similar enhancement to occur.