Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-25T00:39:15

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) levels are at mainly moderate levels and are likely to increasingly exceed the high (1e3pfu) threshold over the four days due to the coronal hole high speed streams.  There may be a decrease at times due to any geomagnetic enhancements. The solar wind may also occasionally compress the magnetopause away from satellite observations, which may also lead to apparent sharp reductions and equally sharp increases.

24-hour electron fluence values have levelled off after earlier increases. However, fluence values are expected to rise above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold either on day 2 or day 3, subject the the above potential modifications to the magnetopause. Fluence levels reached the Very Active threshold (1e9 integrated fluence) level on the previous rotation, but on that occasion the starting level was higher. Despite this, there is an increasing risk of reaching Very Active levels later in the period.