Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-24T00:15:48

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, has been high (above 1000 pfu) since 23/1200 UTC. As solar winds ease during day 1 and 2 (23rd and 24th), peak values are expected to rise, with generally high values persisting. There is then the potential for drop out of flux values during the 26th, with the forecast arrival of a further high speed stream, perhaps alongside an embedded but weak CME. Flux levels are likely to recover a little on day 4, but likely lower than previously observed.  

The associated 24 hour electron fluence will persist at Active levels (above 1e8 integrated pfu) until at least day 3. The potential dropout in flux values could then lead to fluence levels falling to background thereafter. This is low confidence, however, with a chance of being maintained at Active levels.  REFM is currently over-estimating potential peak values, but does highlight the persistently above Active trend.