MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-17T00:18:45
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background and expected to remain mostly at this level through the period, with a chance of rising to Moderate due to any slight solar wind enhancement. This is supported by persistence, with electron flux remaining background to moderate through the equivalent 4-day period on the previous rotation (21st-24th Oct).
The associated 24-hour electron fluence will remain at background levels throughout, with REFM currently providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-11-17T00:18:45 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |