Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-10T00:01:12

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has been at mostly Moderate levels over the last 24 hours, with a peak of 820 pfu today. With solar winds declining, a decreasing trend is also expected in electron flux levels. However there is just a slight chance that flux levels will peak just above the High (1000 pfu) alert level on Day 1 (10 Nov).

The expected declining trend means that the electron fluence is likely to remain below the Active threshold, again with a decreasing trend. The REFM model shows fluence levels decreasing. The recurrence-persistence model has probabilities of around 6 or 7%, however this is considered too high.