Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-10T00:01:08

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16, is forecast to remain below the Alert threshold (1000 pfu) on much of Day 1 (10 Dec), but with a probable rise later in the day. This is due to the arrival of the fast wind of CH01, coupled with any potential influence from the expected CME arrival early on Day 1.  Periods of high flux are then likely. 

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is likely to rise in response to the increased flux later on Day 1 or into Day 2 (11 Dec), with a chance of reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. A further minor enhancement from CH03/- keeps the risk of seeing Active fluence levels slightly raised into Day 4 (13 Dec).

REFM currently indicates fluence levels remaining steady at background, however this doesn't account for either the potential fast wind enhancement or the CME arrival, and hence can be discounted.