MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-09T00:00:45
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background levels with no significant enhancements anticipated, at least until the arrival of the fast wind of coronal hole 13. This is a small coronal hole, and new on this rotation, with its fast wind only expected to slightly enhance solar wind conditions on this rotation. Consequently the high energy electron flux is forecast to increase to moderate levels on day 2, 3 and 4 (10th to 12th), with maximum values potentially reaching high (above 1000 pfu) during the diurnal peak.
As any periods of high flux are likely to be short lived, the associated 24 hour fluence, is forecast to remain below the Active threshold, but perhaps approaching this level through days 3 and 4 (11th and 12th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-01-09T00:00:45 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |