Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-16T00:02:07

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at background to moderate levels until day 4 (19th), then increase moderate to high under the influence of the high speed streams from initially CH14 on day 3 (18th) and then also from positive CH15 on day 4 (19th). The corresponding electron fluence forecast to is remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, despite an increasing trend in the fluence later in the forecast period as a response to the increased flux levels.

The Met Office REFM model keeps the fluence well below the Active threshold, which is accepted as good guidance.