Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-17T00:02:14

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at background to moderate levels until Day 3 (19th), with an increasing chance of reaching the Alert level (1000 pfu) at the diurnal maxima following the influence of anticipated high speed streams. The corresponding electron fluence forecast is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, although with an anticipated increasing trend later in the forecast period as a response to the increased solar winds.

This is supported by the REM 3-day forecast and the 27-day recurrence, which both have low trends, although there is a rising trend by Day 4 on the 27-day recurrence, but not rising above the Active threshold. The recurrence-persistence model has low single figure probabilities on Days 2 to 3, then rising on Day 4 to 13%, which is reasonable given low confidence.