Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-18T00:01:06

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be largely at background to moderate levels, but with an increasing chance of reaching the Alert level (1000 pfu) at the diurnal maximum by Day 4 (21st Jan). The corresponding electron fluence forecast will most likely remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, although with an anticipated increasing trend through the forecast period in response to coronal hole influences.

This seems best supported by the recurrence-persistence model which has slowly rising probabilities to 13% by Day 4. REFM keeps fluence values low with a tentative small rise on Day 3.