Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-25T00:04:00

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to persist at background levels initially. Any enhancement relies on the influence of CH17/- which remains rather small and only brought Moderate levels of high energy electrons during the last rotation. A similar enhancement is expected at the end of day 1 (25th) onward, with the flux perhaps reaching High (greater than 1000 pfu) during the diurnal peaks later in the period.

However, these levels are unlikely to be sufficient, with the corresponding 24-hour electron fluence expected to remain muted and well below the Active threshold. This is confirmed by both the REFM and the Recurrence-Persistence Electron Forecast.