MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-26T00:02:05
The increase in high energy electron flux following connection with coronal hole 07 has been relatively muted, and as such levels currently seen are likely to be near the peak for this event. This now means that the 24-hour integrated electron fluence is unlikely to exceed the Active threshold in the period.
Current REFM guidance is felt to be significantly overstating the risk of exceeding Active fluence in the coming four days, although a slight upward trend is likely for days 1 and 2 (26th and 27th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-12-26T00:02:05 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |