Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-26T00:27:35

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), as observed by GOES-16 has undergone a recent decrease, which may be due to a combination of the diurnal cycle and increasing geomagnetic activity. Mainly moderate levels are forecast on day 1, due to expected geomagnetic enhancement. These should then recover to generally high levels through days 2 and 3 as the expected high speed stream becomes established. The recovery in values will be subject to the magnitude of any geomagnetic activity which will cause temporary, but sharp decreases.

Electron fluence is close to the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but is expected to increase above, dependent on the duration of any significant reductions to the electron flux. Any reductions however are expected to be short-lived, with the electron fluence forecast to be mainly around or just above the Active level over the next four days.