Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-25T00:13:12

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) values, as observed by GOES-16 have been mainly above the high (1e3pfu) threshold. As solar winds ease through Day 1 (25 Nov), the values may fall below this threshold at the diurnal minimum. However, the likely onset of a further coronal hole high speed stream either later on Day 1 or early on Day 2 (26 Nov), is expected to result in predominately high observations through the remainder of the period. It is possible that any geomagnetic activity may temporarily suppress flux values, but these values are likely to return to similar or higher levels once the geomagnetic activity has subsided.

Corresponding 24-hour fluence values are forecast to persist above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the next four days, although any sharp reductions in flux values due to geomagnetic activity may result in a temporary drop of fluence values below the threshold. Flux and fluence levels may start to drop by the end of the period on Day 4 (28 Nov).