Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-18T00:09:23

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background and expected to remain mostly at this level through the period, with a chance of rising to Moderate due to any slight solar wind enhancements, more especially by Day 4 (21st). This is supported by persistence, with electron flux remaining background to moderate through the equivalent 4-day period on the previous rotation.

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain at background levels bu may rise later in the period, with Met Office REFM output currently considered to be offering good guidance.