MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-18T00:02:06
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as measured by GOES-16 is currently at background to moderate levels and is not expected to change significantly through the period, although perhaps trending slightly upwards later in the period if any weak coronal hole influences occur.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) and is expected to remain below throughout. REFM is giving good guidance, although some slight increase over REFM expectations can be anticipated later, depending on the strength of any possible connection to CH07.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-12-18T00:02:06 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |