Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-18T12:00:28

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as measured by GOES-16 is currently at background levels and is not expected to change significantly through the period. Any response from coronal hole 07 is likely to be after the end of the forecast period. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active level throughout. The REFM model is giving good guidance, with a low trend continuing, although the 27-day recurrence is suggesting a rise by Day 4. This is considered to be overdone, as the coronal hole 07 is delayed by 1 or 2 days compared with the last rotation. The recurrence-persistence model has 28 percent chance of Active-level exceedance by Day 4, but this is considered too high.