Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-20T00:23:28

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as measured by GOES-16 is currently at background levels and is not expected to change significantly until late day 2 or day 3, when an increase is possible in response to any enhancement from the fast wind of CH08. This then has the chance of reaching moderate levels, perhaps peaking at high (greater than 1000 pfu) day 3 or day 4. However any further influence of the fast wind of the anticipated stronger connection to CH07 has the potential to cause observed flux values to drop out to background again on day 4.

The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level throughout. Any response from CH08 is likely to be late in the period, only approaching the Active threshold by the end of day 3 or day 4 (22nd or 23rd). This response is also likely to be limited by the arrival of the fast wind of CH07. The REFM model is giving good guidance, with a low trend continuing throughout.