Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-21T00:26:30

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at generally background levels through day 1, but may rise sharply to alert (1e3 pfu) levels through days 2 or 3 (22 or 23 Dec) when the coronal hole high speed stream from CH07/+ becomes established.

Associated 24-hour fluence values are likely to stay below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu), but with a rising trend. There is slight but increasing chance of the Active threshold being reached from late on day 2 and through days 3 and 4, this dependent on the strength of the high speed stream. Any increase will also be subject to any reductions due to geomagnetic enhancements.