Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-20T00:16:19

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background levels, and expected to persist at these levels for much of day 1 and 2 (20th and 21st). There is the potential for some muted enhancement later day 2 and through the rest of the period, with peak moderate values and a slight chance of reaching High during period of diurnal maximum. This would be due to any solar wind enhancement that occurs from the fast wind of CH15.

The associated electron fluence is currently at background, and is expected to remain at this level, although likely with an increasing trend. REFM supports these background fluence levels, although lacks the expected increasing trend later in the period.