Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-27T00:02:51

The recent surge in solar wind speeds appear to have driven an increase in the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), falling short of reaching high levels with a peak of 912 ppcc at 26/2105 UTC. A further rise is possible on day 1 (27th) and day 2 (28th), with the flux rising above the 1000 pfu Alert threshold at the diurnal maxima, followed by a slow decline on day 3 and day 4. The 24-hour integrated electron fluence may display a rising trend but is unlikely to reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.

A similar enhancement was observed on the previous rotation and is considered to provide good guidance, although this rotation carries a slightly higher degree of risk given the faster solar winds that have been observed. This is confirmed by the Recurrence-Persistence Electron Forecast Model, whereas the REFM is not considered to be trustworthy due to its high level of variability.