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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-26T00:16:52

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to oscillate between background and Moderate levels over the next few days, perhaps High (greater than 1000 pfu) briefly during the diurnal peak on day 1 (26th) and day 2 (27th). However, a very slow decline should follow on day 3 (28th) and day 4 (29th) as the high speed stream from CH17 wanes, similar to what we observed on the last rotation. 

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to display a slight rising trend but to remain below the Active threshold. This is confirmed by both the REFM and the Recurrence-Persistence Electron Forecast. 

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2021-01-26T00:16:52
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 10% 1%
Day 2 10% 1%
Day 3 10% 1%
Day 4 10% 1%