Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-02T00:02:45

The expected increase in geomagnetic activity will most likely lead to a reduction in electron flux on day 1 but an increase the following days, with a chance of reaching high (1e3 pfu) levels during the diurnal peak. However, none of this materialised during the last rotation and under similar geomagnetic enhancements, with electron flux remaining mostly at background levels. With the onset of the HSS running behind schedule (possibly meaning a weaker connection), this outcome is looking possible. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is then likely to display a sharp fall on day 1, followed by a slow rising trend while staying below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during the following days.    

This is somewhat confirmed by the latest REFM output, which keeps fluence values well below the Active threshold.