Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-01T00:28:55

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain above the high (1e3pfu) threshold on day 1, but with sharp brief decreases as the high speed stream compresses the radiation belts away from the GOES-16 spacecraft. A return to high levels is then expected from day 3 as the high speed stream wanes.

24-hour integrated fluence values are expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated fluence) threshold on days 1 and 2, but with a slight dip on days 1 and 2 (01 and 02 February) due to any reduction in the electron flux. An increase back above the Active threshold is likely through days 3 and 4, due to the waning high speed stream.