Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-03T00:29:34

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been suppressed due to the elevated geomagnetic activity and strong high speed stream which is likely to be redistributing electrons in the belts and also deforming the radiation belts away from the path of the GOES-16 satellite. Mainly background values have been observed with moderate levels on diurnal peaks. There is an increasing likelihood of the electron flux reaching the high (1e3pfu) level through the next four days due to the input of electrons into the belts, but this may be offset by the risk of loss of electrons due to geomagnetic storms.

Electron fluence is responding quickly to any increases in electron flux, therefore a rapid rise toward the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold is expected on day 2, with a high risk of exceeding the threshold. There is a greater uncertainty later in the period, due to the combination of the high speed stream onset and risk of geomagnetic storms.