Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-10T00:29:14

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has oscillated between background and moderate levels through the last 24 hours. As the high speed stream from coronal hole 31 eases, the peak values may reach a higher diurnal peak during day 1 (10 March), with a decline to moderate values through days 2 and into day 3. A further decrease is then likely on days 3 or day 4, due to anticipated onset of the high speed stream from coronal hole 32.

Corresponding 24 hour fluence levels are currently below the Active threshold with a level trend. REFM is suggesting an increase above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on day 1, but while this is considered a low likelihood, a slight increase to just below the threshold is possible as a result of rising flux levels. A decrease is then forecast through days 2 to 4 (11 to 13 March).