Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-17T00:11:07

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain above the Alert levels through much of the period, especially at the diurnal maxima. The corresponding fluence will remain above the Active level on Day 1 (17 March), with relatively high probability of remaining above through much of the period, but with lower confidence in the later forecast.  

The 3-day REFM forecast suggests a weakening trend to below Active levels, but this is considered too quick. The levels from the 27-day recurrence also show below Active values, but this is also not reflecting the current observed fluence. The recurrence-persistence model is also suggesting a fall, but is probably too fast. There is likely to be a slow fall in reality, but may well stay above the Active level for much of the forecast period. But confidence is relatively low, especially on day 4 (20th March).