Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-18T00:11:39

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to be at moderate to high levels to start, but decrease to background levels for a time from late day 2 (19th), as expected increased geomagnetic activity compresses the magnetopause and significantly reduces electron counts. A recovery to moderate to high levels is then likely by day 4 as geomagnetic activity subsides. Fluence levels are likely to fall below the active threshold on days 1 and 2 (19th & 20th), before recovering again and likely rising above the threshold again later in the period.  

Current REFM data hasn't captured the current active fluence levels, but the decreasing trend is accepted over the next two days.