Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-17T00:15:08

The electron flux and fluence forecasts inherit the uncertainty from the geomagnetic forecast. Having said this, there is high confidence in the prevailing theme of an overall rise in these measures, with Active fluence Likely by the time CH46 has established and initial geomagnetism has stabilised. This ought to be complete by day 3 (19th), giving Likely Active fluence by the end of the four days.

Of greater uncertainty is the opportunity for Active levels to be attained in the wake of the smaller CH45, in the expected brief hiatus between this hole and its parent (CH46). At present this is perhaps rated as a slight chance. While this first peak in probability is not resolved, the second is of greater confidence, coming as it does at the very end of the four days.