Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-18T00:01:14

The electron flux and fluence has shown a sharp increase in the last 24 hours, as the electron levels start to respond to the increased solar wind speeds from CH46/-. It is likely that electron flux will continue to increase through the next couple of days, likely reaching High levels at the diurnal maxima through the next 4 days.

Fluence is also expected to continue to increase, likely reaching Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels by the end of Day 1 (18 Apr) and remaining above the Active threshold for much of the four day period. On the previous rotation, fluence reached Active on the equivalent of Day 1 and remained that way until late on Day 4 (21 Apr). The latest REFM forecasts support this, with fluence reaching Active levels later on Day 1.