Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-11T00:52:42

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is currently at background levels, and expected to remain at background or moderate levels through the next four days. There is a possibility of a slight increasing trend on Day 1 (11th) if we see an increase in wind speeds from the remnants of coronal hole 40. However any increase in wind speeds is low confidence and not likely to be much above 400 km/s, which is not expected to provide enough energy for any significant increase in electron levels. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) through the forecast period.

This is broadly supported by the latest REFM forecast, which does show an increase but below the Active threshold. The recurrence-persistence model does show increased probabilities of Active levels, but this is due to the fact that this coronal hole was a much more significant feature on the last rotation, giving wind speeds up to 550 km/s and allowing electron levels to rise last time around. With this feature now largely closed up, we are not expecting wind speeds anywhere near those of the last rotation and so the probabilities from this model will be significantly over estimated.