Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-12T00:14:53

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is currently at Normal Background levels, and is expected to remain at Normal Background or Moderate levels throughout the next four days.

There is a possibility of a slight increasing trend due to slight enhancements in the solar wind from coronal holes 44 and 43. However, any increase in wind speeds is not likely to be much above 400km/s, which should prompt little reaction in electron populations. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) through the forecast period, albeit perhaps with a slight rising trend. This is broadly supported by the latest REFM forecast, which does show a slight increase, but well below the Active threshold.